Gold futures (GLD) will close above $410.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) combines with wartime safe haven flows to override technical weakness

NEXUS forecast made 2026-06-06 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-20. Brier score 0.065.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis showing 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) and 20% escalation probability, plus wartime regime forcing safe haven rotation. Current GLD at $396.25, target represents 3.5% move which is reasonable for gold during geopolitical stress.

Probability

26%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Jun 20101d ago

Made

Jun 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.