HITBrier 0.454

Early-confirmed: GLD hit target above 480 on 2026-03-10. Current price: 477.86 (started at 472.53).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

LONG correctGLD

Gold (GLD) will close above $480 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as geopolitical risk premium materializes ahead of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 33% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.454.

Derived from: Fear/Greed index at 30 (defensive positioning) + 80% geopolitical escalation risk + Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence + gold's historical role as crisis hedge

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$480

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will reach a new 30-day high within 14 days as the approach of the intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence (March 31) and multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium game theory scenarios drive precious metals hedging demand

market33%HIT

Gold futures (GLD) will close above $450 per share on at least 3 trading days within 30 days

market40%MISS

Gold futures (GLD) will close above $410.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) combines with wartime safe haven flows to override technical weakness

market

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Gold (GLD) will close above $480 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as geopolitical risk premium materializes ahead of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

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