MISSBrier 0.161

Data-resolved: GLD moved from 433.13 to 413.82 (-4.46%) during 2026-04-25 to 2026-05-25. Target: above 450. Target not reached. High was 437.42.

Resolved May 25, 2026

Market

LONG wrongGLD

Gold futures (GLD) will close above $450 per share on at least 3 trading days within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-25 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-25. Brier score 0.161.

Derived from: Wartime regime with 80% escalation risk score and multiple Fearon bargaining failures creating sustained safe haven demand. GLD currently at 433.13, target represents ~4% move consistent with wartime gold rallies.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: May 25144d ago
Made: Apr 25

Price Target$450

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Gold futures (GLD) will close above $410.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) combines with wartime safe haven flows to override technical weakness

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Gold (GLD) will close above $480 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as geopolitical risk premium materializes ahead of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

market33%HIT

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will reach a new 30-day high within 14 days as the approach of the intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence (March 31) and multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium game theory scenarios drive precious metals hedging demand

market

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Gold futures (GLD) will close above $450 per share on at least 3 trading days within 30 days

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