Iran will formally declare closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (beyond harassment, mine, or seizure incidents) within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 42% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-24.
Strait of Hormuz Bayesian analysis shows 67% escalation probability and Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict conditions), but formal closure is a distinct, higher-threshold policy action than the already-confirmed harassment/mine/seizure pattern; base rate for policy_action/geopolitical (20%) applies with modest upward adjustment for confirmed escalation trend.
- Probability
- 42%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 245d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.