Iran will formally declare closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (beyond harassment, mine, or seizure incidents) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 42% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-24.

Strait of Hormuz Bayesian analysis shows 67% escalation probability and Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict conditions), but formal closure is a distinct, higher-threshold policy action than the already-confirmed harassment/mine/seizure pattern; base rate for policy_action/geopolitical (20%) applies with modest upward adjustment for confirmed escalation trend.

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

geopolitical77%

The United States will cast or threaten a veto blocking a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

geopolitical58%

The United Nations or a G7/UNGA-linked multilateral forum will issue a formal statement or resolution addressing the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

geopolitical57%

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Iran will formally declare closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (beyond harassment, mine, or seizure incidents) within 14 days.

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