The United States will cast or threaten a veto blocking a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 58% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-24.

Erev Rosh Hashana + UNGA convergence signal (intensity 5/5) combined with the unresolved Israel-Hamas Fearon dynamics and the approaching October 7 anniversary audience-cost pressure on US diplomatic positioning at the UN.

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will formally declare closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (beyond harassment, mine, or seizure incidents) within 14 days.

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North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

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The United States will cast or threaten a veto blocking a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

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