Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 69% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Derived from: Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot most-likely equilibrium 'fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance' (confidence 55%), consistent with the recently confirmed July 2026 hawkish hold pattern, diverging upward from the crowd's 45% YES price on this exact Polymarket question.

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 6 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a publicly reported large-scale military exercise or show-of-force near Taiwan coinciding with the UN General Assembly week (Sept 15-26).

geopolitical70%

North Korea will conduct a long-range or ICBM-class missile test (distinct from short-range provocations) within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

The United States will cast or threaten a veto blocking a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

geopolitical58%

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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

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