China's PLA will conduct a publicly reported large-scale military exercise or show-of-force near Taiwan coinciding with the UN General Assembly week (Sept 15-26).

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 70% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-10-02.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium: China gray-zone escalation vs US economic deterrence (fragile stability 30%, escalation probability 53%); the Erev Rosh Hashana + UNGA convergence signal (intensity 5/5) flags this specific calendar window as elevated-risk, distinct from the general 30-day PLA incursion prediction already pending.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2419d ago
Made: Sep 10

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China's PLA will conduct a publicly reported large-scale military exercise or show-of-force near Taiwan coinciding with the UN General Assembly week (Sept 15-26).

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