China will announce a new export restriction, customs measure, or sanction targeting critical minerals, rare earths, or technology exports to the United States within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: China Gray zone escalation vs US Economic deterrence at 100% probability, fragile stability (30% coalition), critical fracture risk, narrow 25% Fearon bargaining range. Prior confirmed pattern (Aug 2026 FCC/Xinjiang sanctions triggered Chinese retaliation) suggests continuation of tit-for-tat economic measures.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 104d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or truce framework (beyond prisoner/body exchanges) within 30 days.

geopolitical19%

Iran will publicly announce a suspension or new restriction on IAEA inspection access within 30 days.

geopolitical23%

China will announce a new trade, customs, or export restriction specifically targeting Taiwan-linked goods or companies within 14 days.

geopolitical23%EXPIRED

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North Korea will conduct a long-range or ICBM-class missile test (distinct from short-range provocations) within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

China will announce a new export restriction, customs measure, or sanction targeting critical minerals, rare earths, or technology exports to the United States within 30 days

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