Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or truce framework (beyond prisoner/body exchanges) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 19% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range and 'negotiate from strength / push negotiated settlement' at 91% probability (bullish, 78% confidence), but this claim sets a materially higher bar (formal ceasefire framework, not just exchanges) than the already-confirmed lower-bar prior prediction.

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 10in 11d
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will publicly announce a suspension or new restriction on IAEA inspection access within 30 days.

geopolitical23%

China will announce a new trade, customs, or export restriction specifically targeting Taiwan-linked goods or companies within 14 days.

geopolitical23%

China will announce a new export restriction, customs measure, or sanction targeting critical minerals, rare earths, or technology exports to the United States within 30 days

geopolitical27%

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Israel will conduct a significant new military operation in Gaza or against Hamas/Hezbollah-linked targets around the October 7 anniversary window by 2026-10-14.

geopolitical57%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or truce framework (beyond prisoner/body exchanges) within 30 days.

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