Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or truce framework (beyond prisoner/body exchanges) within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 19% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.
Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range and 'negotiate from strength / push negotiated settlement' at 91% probability (bullish, 78% confidence), but this claim sets a materially higher bar (formal ceasefire framework, not just exchanges) than the already-confirmed lower-bar prior prediction.
- Probability
- 19%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 10in 11d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.