China will announce a new trade, customs, or export restriction specifically targeting Taiwan-linked goods or companies within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 23% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-24.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows China in 'gray zone escalation' with 30% coalition stability and critical fracture risk; the UN General Assembly window (active signal, intensity 5/5) raises probability of economic-coercion actions distinct from the already-tracked military incursion prediction.

Probability: 23%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will publicly announce a suspension or new restriction on IAEA inspection access within 30 days.

geopolitical23%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or truce framework (beyond prisoner/body exchanges) within 30 days.

geopolitical19%

Israel will conduct a significant new military operation in Gaza or against Hamas/Hezbollah-linked targets around the October 7 anniversary window by 2026-10-14.

geopolitical57%

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China will announce a new export restriction, customs measure, or sanction targeting critical minerals, rare earths, or technology exports to the United States within 30 days

geopolitical27%

China will announce a new trade, customs, or export restriction specifically targeting Taiwan-linked goods or companies within 14 days.

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