[basis: absence] Two differently-phrased searches ('Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping' and 'Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz war news') within the evidence window (2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21) found no wire/official-tier confirmation of a formal complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial tanker traffic. The only relevant result was an 'other'-tier report (Anadolu Ajansı, 9/7) about Iran declaring a 'restricted maritime zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz', which is not a full closure and is not wire/official tier. No evidence of harassment escalating to a formal complete closure was found; only continued harassment/attacks on tankers were reported (Reuters 9/8, 9/10), which the claim explicitly excludes as already-confirmed baseline activity.
Resolved Sep 26, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG wrong
Iran will impose a formal, complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial tanker traffic (beyond harassment/mine incidents already confirmed).
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 16% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.025.
Iran Nuclear Bayesian bargaining range is 0% (Fearon failure, structural conflict conditions) and Hormuz escalation probability sits at 67% with prior confirmed harassment, mine deployment, and vessel seizures. A full formal closure is a tail escalation beyond the already-realized harassment pattern, warranting moderate but not high confidence.
Probability
16%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Sep 218d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .
US or Indian forces will conduct at least one confirmed surgical strike or cross-border military operation against Pakistan-based targets within 30 days.