US or Indian forces will conduct at least one confirmed surgical strike or cross-border military operation against Pakistan-based targets within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

India-Pakistan Kashmir Escalation Nash equilibrium: 'US chooses Surgical strikes; China chooses Accept international mediation' (mixed, 70% confidence). policy_action/geopolitical base rate is low (20%), tempering confidence despite the Nash signal.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026.

geopolitical5%

Iran will impose a formal, complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial tanker traffic (beyond harassment/mine incidents already confirmed).

geopolitical16%MISS

North Korea will conduct an underground nuclear weapons test.

geopolitical38%

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Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure within 30 days.

geopolitical51%

US or Indian forces will conduct at least one confirmed surgical strike or cross-border military operation against Pakistan-based targets within 30 days.

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