China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Mirrors Polymarket question 567621 (crowd YES 4%). Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis shows dominant equilibrium is 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' (p=100%, fragile stability, narrow 25% bargaining range) -- not outright invasion. Escalation probability of 53% reflects gray-zone friction, not a full amphibious campaign, so my estimate sits close to but not below the crowd price.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 115 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026.

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