Delta Air Lines (DAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz-driven jet fuel cost pressure weighs on airline margins (target below $76.16, 5% from $80.17 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.107.

Confirmed Brent >$90 sustained through Hormuz disruption (67% escalation probability) directly raises jet fuel input costs for airlines, a second-order effect not currently captured by any pending prediction.

Probability

33%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.