MISSBrier 0.136

Data-resolved: DAL moved from 80.17 to 79.62 (-0.69%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 76.16. Target not reached. Low was 76.89.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctDAL

DAL (Delta Air Lines) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $76.16, 5% from $80.17 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.136.

Sustained oil war-premium (USO confirmed above $130, Brent above $90) compresses airline fuel margins; wartime regime combined with risk-off equity conditions amplifies downside for fuel-cost-sensitive carriers.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$76.16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz-driven jet fuel cost pressure weighs on airline margins (target below $76.16, 5% from $80.17 at creation)

market33%MISS

DAL (Delta Air Lines) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated Hormuz-linked oil price risk and risk-off travel demand pressure fuel-cost-sensitive airline equities (target below $75.64, 5% from $79.62 at creation)

market68%

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DAL (Delta Air Lines) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $76.16, 5% from $80.17 at creation)

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