HITBrier 0.320

Early-confirmed: XOM hit target above 165.85 on 2026-09-11. Current price: 165.99 (started at 159.47).

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Market

LONG correctXOM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven crude price support lifts major integrated energy producers (target above $165.85, 4% from $159.47 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 43% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-12. Brier score 0.320.

Strait of Hormuz 67% escalation probability and confirmed Brent >$90 sustained through prior window support upstream/integrated oil majors' earnings outlook.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$165.85

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XOM (Exxon Mobil) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $167.44, 5% from $159.47 at creation)

market44%HIT

ExxonMobil (XOM) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability) and a fragile OPEC+ cut equilibrium support elevated crude prices (target above $171.43, 5% from $163.27 at creation)

market78%

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Exxon Mobil (XOM) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven crude price support lifts major integrated energy producers (target above $165.85, 4% from $159.47 at creation)

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