SPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-13 at 15% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-27. Brier score 0.024.

Derived from: risk_off market regime confirmation, Bayesian Fearon failures on Iran-nuclear and US-China trade (0% bargaining range), and 80% escalation risk score; tempered by red-team caution that oversold RSI historically precedes mean-reversion bounces.

Probability

15%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Aug 2733d ago

Made

Aug 13

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.