SPY will close above $785.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-26 at 82% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.

Trading action BUY SPY: RSI 27.3, price at lower Bollinger Band, F&G 38 fear zone supports contrarian mean-reversion; confidence tempered per red-team critique that wartime overhang (Hormuz 67% escalation) could invalidate the bounce thesis.

Probability: 82%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 10in 11d
Made: Sep 26

Price Target$785

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SPY will close above $780.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market35%MISS

SPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

market15%MISS

SPY will close above $760 on at least one trading day within 7 days, reflecting a technical mean-reversion bounce from RSI 27.3 oversold extreme despite the risk-off wartime backdrop.

market

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SPY will close above $785.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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