MISSBrier 0.020

Data-resolved: SPY moved from 749.17 to 742.09 (-0.95%) during 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-21. Target: above 760. Target not reached. High was 755.58.

Resolved Jul 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongSPY

SPY will close above $760 on at least one trading day within 7 days, reflecting a technical mean-reversion bounce from RSI 27.3 oversold extreme despite the risk-off wartime backdrop.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-14 at 14% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-07-21. Brier score 0.020.

Derived from: BUY SPY contrarian entry (45% conf, lower Bollinger Band $633.39) combined with RSI 27.3 capitulation reading; red-team critique on oversold reversals is partially credited by tempering confidence below the thesis's own 45%.

Probability: 14%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Jul 2170d ago
Made: Jul 14

Price Target$760

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

market15%MISS

SPY will close above $780.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market35%MISS

The correlation between SPY and GLD will break below 0.10 within 14 days

market25%PARTIAL

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SPY will close above $760 on at least one trading day within 7 days, reflecting a technical mean-reversion bounce from RSI 27.3 oversold extreme despite the risk-off wartime backdrop.

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