MISSBrier 0.120

Data-resolved: SPY moved from 765.96 to 770.22 (0.56%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: above 780. Target not reached. High was 774.89.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

LONG correctSPY

SPY will close above $780.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.120.

Technical mean-reversion case from RSI 27.3 capitulation-level oversold reading; red-team analysis notes forward returns from bottom-decile RSI are asymmetrically positive over 5-20 day windows, offsetting the wartime risk-off overlay.

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$780

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SPY will close above $785.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market82%

SPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

market15%MISS

SPY will close above $760 on at least one trading day within 7 days, reflecting a technical mean-reversion bounce from RSI 27.3 oversold extreme despite the risk-off wartime backdrop.

market14%MISS

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SPY will close above $780.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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