PARTIALBrier 0.064

Retrieved SPY and GLD daily price data for May 4-15, 2026. SPY moved from 718.01 to 739.17 (+2.95%), while GLD moved from 414.71 to 417.29 (+0.62%). Both assets showed positive correlation during the period - when SPY rose, GLD generally rose as well, and when SPY fell, GLD also fell (e.g., both declined on May 15). Visual inspection of daily movements shows positive correlation throughout the period, not the negative correlation needed to break below 0.10. The correlation remained well above 0.10 threshold throughout the 14-day window. Required: Correlation < 0.10, Actual: Correlation remained positive and above 0.10 throughout period.

Resolved May 17, 2026

Market

SHORT correctSPY

The correlation between SPY and GLD will break below 0.10 within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-03 at 25% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-17. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: Wartime regime with zero Nash equilibria in multiple scenarios (Iran-nuclear, US-China trade) should drive classic safe-haven rotation. Current GLD at $423.18 vs SPY technical breakdown creates divergence setup. Game theory analysis shows sustained conflict momentum with Iran IRGC multi-wave campaigns. Historical wartime periods show negative equity-gold correlation.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: May 17135d ago
Made: May 3

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

SPY will close above $760 on at least one trading day within 7 days, reflecting a technical mean-reversion bounce from RSI 27.3 oversold extreme despite the risk-off wartime backdrop.

market14%MISS

SPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

market15%MISS

SPY will close above $780.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market

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The correlation between SPY and GLD will break below 0.10 within 14 days

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