Iran will conduct a harassment, boarding, or seizure action against a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-25.

Bayesian analysis: Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalation probability 67%, dominant actor types calculating/desperate, Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict favored). Wartime regime flags Hormuz as the active chokepoint risk, warranting direct-impact escalation modeling rather than diplomatic-resolution priors.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 25in 26d
Made: Sep 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve or a senior Fed official will publicly signal 'higher for longer' rate guidance (no cut, explicit hawkish language) at its next scheduled communication within 30 days.

geopolitical67%

China will conduct a large-scale joint military exercise explicitly framed as rehearsing a blockade of Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran will publicly reject or suspend cooperation with IAEA-mediated nuclear negotiations within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

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Saudi Arabia will announce a formal OPEC+ production cut decision at the upcoming ministerial meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical60%

Iran will conduct a harassment, boarding, or seizure action against a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

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