Iran will conduct a harassment, boarding, or seizure action against a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-25.
Bayesian analysis: Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalation probability 67%, dominant actor types calculating/desperate, Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict favored). Wartime regime flags Hormuz as the active chokepoint risk, warranting direct-impact escalation modeling rather than diplomatic-resolution priors.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 25in 26d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.