China will conduct a large-scale joint military exercise explicitly framed as rehearsing a blockade of Taiwan within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-25.
Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (gray zone escalation vs economic deterrence, p=100% but fragile, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical) signals rising probability of overt coercive signaling distinct from routine ADIZ incursions.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 25in 26d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.