European natural gas futures (TTF) will close above €50/MWh on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% forces emergency LNG procurement at premium pricing

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-21 at 10% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-07-09.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalation probability 67%, above 50% threshold indicating disruption scenarios likely. Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) suggests structural conflict conditions. European energy rationing scenarios from thesis combine with wartime regime energy security premium. Reference class: day_count/market 44% hit rate, slight increase for confirmed supply disruption conditions.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Jun 20101d ago
Made: May 21

Price Target$50

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

European natural gas futures will close above €45/MWh on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Nash equilibrium instability combines with Iran energy infrastructure disruption to pressure already depleted storage below 60%

market10%MISS

Dutch TTF natural gas futures will decline by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as the Russia-Ukraine Bayesian equilibrium (50% bargaining range, 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength' resolution, bullish confidence 78%) eases European energy supply risk premiums.

market6%MISS

European natural gas (TTF) will trade above €45 per MWh on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Russia-Ukraine War endgame negotiations create supply uncertainty despite 78% diplomatic resolution probability

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European natural gas futures (TTF) will close above €50/MWh on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% forces emergency LNG procurement at premium pricing

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