MISSBrier 0.010

TTF data shows current price at 0 with no recent history available from get_market_price. Reference price at creation was €11.27. Web search found limited specific TTF price data within the evidence window. Given the reference price was €11.27 (well below €45) and current data shows 0, there is no evidence TTF traded above €45 on any trading days. Actual trading days above €45: 0, Required: at least 2, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 19, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTTF

European natural gas (TTF) will trade above €45 per MWh on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Russia-Ukraine War endgame negotiations create supply uncertainty despite 78% diplomatic resolution probability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-19. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Bayesian analysis shows 78% confidence in diplomatic resolution but 36% escalation probability remains elevated. European Energy Security scenario projects EU renewable acceleration vs Russian Asian market focus. Wartime regime indicates supply volatility during negotiation phases.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 18164d ago
Made: Mar 19

Price Target$45

Regime

European natural gas futures will close above €45/MWh on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Nash equilibrium instability combines with Iran energy infrastructure disruption to pressure already depleted storage below 60%

market10%MISS

European natural gas futures (TTF) will close above €50/MWh on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% forces emergency LNG procurement at premium pricing

market10%EXPIRED

Dutch TTF natural gas futures will decline by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as the Russia-Ukraine Bayesian equilibrium (50% bargaining range, 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength' resolution, bullish confidence 78%) eases European energy supply risk premiums.

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European natural gas (TTF) will trade above €45 per MWh on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Russia-Ukraine War endgame negotiations create supply uncertainty despite 78% diplomatic resolution probability

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