MISSBrier 0.010

TTF futures price data shows current price of 0 with no historical data available. Reference price at creation was €11.27/MWh. Found one result mentioning natural gas price forecast from April 1, 2026, but no specific daily TTF closing prices above €45/MWh. No evidence of TTF closing above €45 on any trading days between April 1-15, 2026. Actual: 0 days above €45, Required: at least 4 days, 0 < 4 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Apr 15, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTTF

European natural gas futures will close above €45/MWh on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Nash equilibrium instability combines with Iran energy infrastructure disruption to pressure already depleted storage below 60%

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-01 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Russia-Ukraine War Endgame showing 36% escalation probability with fragile equilibrium stability, combined with confirmed European gas storage crisis below 60% from resolved predictions. Wartime regime energy supply disruption creates compounding pressure on already strained European energy markets. TTF gas futures support upside breakout scenario.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Apr 1

Price Target$45

Regime

European natural gas (TTF) will trade above €45 per MWh on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Russia-Ukraine War endgame negotiations create supply uncertainty despite 78% diplomatic resolution probability

market10%MISS

European natural gas futures (TTF) will close above €50/MWh on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% forces emergency LNG procurement at premium pricing

market10%EXPIRED

Dutch TTF natural gas futures will decline by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as the Russia-Ukraine Bayesian equilibrium (50% bargaining range, 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength' resolution, bullish confidence 78%) eases European energy supply risk premiums.

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European natural gas futures will close above €45/MWh on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Russia-Ukraine War Endgame Nash equilibrium instability combines with Iran energy infrastructure disruption to pressure already depleted storage below 60%

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