TTF=F futures: July 20 close 58.74 EUR/MWh (vs reference price cited as 11.27, apparently mismatched units/data error at creation). Over the evidence window, TTF ranged from a low of 56.56 (July 28) to a high of 64.40 (July 24), closing at 59.07 on July 31. Cumulative change from 58.74 to 59.07 = +0.56% (a slight INCREASE, not a decline). Lowest point (57.74 on 7/28) vs start (58.74) = -1.7% decline, still short of the 5% threshold. No 5% cumulative decline occurred at any point in the window. Price never approached the stated absolute target of 'below 5'. Direction was flat/up, not down.
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Market
SHORT wrongTTF
Dutch TTF natural gas futures will decline by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as the Russia-Ukraine Bayesian equilibrium (50% bargaining range, 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength' resolution, bullish confidence 78%) eases European energy supply risk premiums.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-20 at 6% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-04. Brier score 0.003.
Derived from: Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame analysis showing sufficient bargaining range for diplomatic resolution and bullish market assessment at 78% confidence.
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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.