Cotton futures will close above $0.80 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Red Sea shipping disruptions and agricultural supply chain concerns create commodity price pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.125.

Derived from: Red Sea Houthi Shipping crisis showing Iran maintaining Houthi support with mixed equilibrium outcomes. Live intelligence confirms Red Sea shipping disruptions affecting global supply chains. Agricultural commodities face dual pressure from shipping costs and potential fertilizer supply issues. Wartime regime historically elevates soft commodity prices through supply chain disruption premium.

Probability

35%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 16166d ago

Made

Mar 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.