Iran will publicly reject or suspend participation in the US-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 59% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-27.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis shows 67% escalation probability despite a nominally 'sufficient' 50% bargaining range, with dominant actor type calculating-but-hawkish Iran; prior confirmed pattern of continued harassment/seizure incidents suggests diplomatic framework remains fragile.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will announce new export restrictions or retaliatory tariffs targeting US critical minerals, rare earths, or agricultural goods within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or negotiated settlement framework within 30 days.

geopolitical18%

The United States will announce a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

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Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian soil (excluding Lebanon, Syria, or other proxy territories) within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

Iran will publicly reject or suspend participation in the US-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

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