China will announce new export restrictions or retaliatory tariffs targeting US critical minerals, rare earths, or agricultural goods within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 29% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.

Bayesian US-China Trade War Escalation shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), zero stable equilibria, bearish market assessment at 60% confidence, indicating structural conditions favor further tit-for-tat escalation rather than the Nash table's optimistic 'negotiate concessions' read.

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 13in 14d
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will publicly reject or suspend participation in the US-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical59%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or negotiated settlement framework within 30 days.

geopolitical18%

The United States will announce a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

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Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian soil (excluding Lebanon, Syria, or other proxy territories) within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

China will announce new export restrictions or retaliatory tariffs targeting US critical minerals, rare earths, or agricultural goods within 30 days.

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