Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian soil (excluding Lebanon, Syria, or other proxy territories) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conditions favor conflict) though escalation probability is a moderate 20%, warranting a below-coinflip but non-trivial estimate for direct strike escalation.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 13in 14d
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

The US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation targeting Russian oil trade intermediaries or shadow-fleet operators within 14 days.

geopolitical28%

China's PBOC will announce a cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or an equivalent broad monetary easing measure within 30 days.

geopolitical22%

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Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian soil (excluding Lebanon, Syria, or other proxy territories) within 30 days.

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