Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or negotiated settlement framework within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 18% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame analysis shows a 50% bargaining range (sufficient for agreement), 2 stable equilibria, most likely outcome 'Russia negotiates from strength; US pushes negotiated settlement' at 91% probability, bullish market impact, 78% confidence -- tempered against policy_action/geopolitical base rate of 20% hit rate.

Probability: 18%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 13in 14d
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will announce new export restrictions or retaliatory tariffs targeting US critical minerals, rare earths, or agricultural goods within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

Iran will publicly reject or suspend participation in the US-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical59%

The United States will announce a new round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian soil (excluding Lebanon, Syria, or other proxy territories) within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire or negotiated settlement framework within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture