Cocoa futures will close above $10,000 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Red Sea shipping disruptions affect West African cocoa export routes and geopolitical risk premiums embed in agricultural commodities
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 33% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.111.
Derived from: Knowledge bank shows Red Sea Houthi shipping disruptions are active with Iran maintaining Houthi support vs US diplomatic resolution (mixed outcome, 70% confidence). Game theory shows 2 Nash equilibria for Red Sea crisis. West African cocoa routes affected by alternative shipping patterns. 30-day timeframe preferred due to best Brier score performance.
- Probability
- 33%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Apr 15167d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.