PARTIALBrier 0.111

Cocoa futures (CC=F) data from March 16 to April 15, 2026 shows highest close was $3,557 on April 14. Price range: $3,028 (low on April 7) to $3,557 (high close on April 14). Actual highest: 3557, Required: 10000, 3557 < 10000 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct (prices generally trended upward from March lows), but magnitude insufficient.

Resolved Apr 15, 2026

Market

LONG correctCC

Cocoa futures will close above $10,000 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Red Sea shipping disruptions affect West African cocoa export routes and geopolitical risk premiums embed in agricultural commodities

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 33% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-15. Brier score 0.111.

Derived from: Knowledge bank shows Red Sea Houthi shipping disruptions are active with Iran maintaining Houthi support vs US diplomatic resolution (mixed outcome, 70% confidence). Game theory shows 2 Nash equilibria for Red Sea crisis. West African cocoa routes affected by alternative shipping patterns. 30-day timeframe preferred due to best Brier score performance.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Mar 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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