MISSBrier 0.010

Data-resolved: EUFN moved from 36.99 to 37.55 (1.51%) during 2026-04-29 to 2026-05-13. Target: below 20. Target not reached. Low was 36.60.

Resolved May 13, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongEUFN

European banking sector ETF (SX7E proxy via EUFN) will decline below $20.00 per share on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force emergency liquidity measures and credit tightening

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-29 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-13. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: wartime regime + Hormuz escalation probability 67% + European energy crisis from confirmed supply disruptions. Reference class: day_count/market has 45% hit rate, reducing confidence due to calibration feedback showing 19pp overconfidence gap

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: May 13139d ago
Made: Apr 29

Price Target$20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

European banking sector ETF (EUFN) will close below $35.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as wartime regime energy cost pressures and ECB hawkish stance create European credit stress beyond current Fearon bargaining failures

market25%PARTIAL

European banking ETF will underperform SPY by more than 4 percentage points within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash equilibria scenarios create European financial sector stress

market64%PARTIAL

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European banking sector ETF (SX7E proxy via EUFN) will decline below $20.00 per share on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force emergency liquidity measures and credit tightening

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