PARTIALBrier 0.403

EUFN (European banking ETF) performance Mar 25-Apr 24: $34.47 to $37.15 = +7.77%. SPY performance Mar 25-Apr 24: $656.82 to $708.45 = +7.86%. Relative performance: EUFN 7.77% - SPY 7.86% = -0.09 percentage points underperformance. Actual: 0.09, Required: >4.0, 0.09 < 4.0 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction correct (EUFN did underperform) but magnitude insufficient.

Resolved Apr 24, 2026

Market

EUFN

European banking ETF will underperform SPY by more than 4 percentage points within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash equilibria scenarios create European financial sector stress

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-25 at 64% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.403.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout and US-China Trade War both have 0% bargaining ranges (Fearon failures), creating systemic risk. European banks exposed to both energy costs and trade disruption. Reference class: percentage_threshold/market shows 78% hit rate but applying 20pp calibration reduction.

Probability: 64%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 24158d ago
Made: Mar 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

European banking sector ETF (SX7E proxy via EUFN) will decline below $20.00 per share on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force emergency liquidity measures and credit tightening

market10%MISS

European banking sector ETF (EUFN) will close below $35.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as wartime regime energy cost pressures and ECB hawkish stance create European credit stress beyond current Fearon bargaining failures

market25%PARTIAL

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European banking ETF will underperform SPY by more than 4 percentage points within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash equilibria scenarios create European financial sector stress

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