MISSBrier 0.068

Baseline (Sep4 close, matching creation reference SPY=770.19): XLE=64.06, SPY=770.19. End of window (last trading day Sep18, 2026): XLE close=64.31, SPY close=761.69. XLE return = (64.31-64.06)/64.06*100 = 0.39%. SPY return = (761.69-770.19)/770.19*100 = -1.10%. Outperformance = 0.39 - (-1.10) = 1.49%. Required >=4%. 1.49 < 4, therefore threshold NOT met. XLE did outperform SPY (direction correct) but by far less than the 4% required.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctXLE

Energy sector ETF XLE will outperform SPY by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven oil premium diverges from broader wartime risk-off equity weakness.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.068.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Fearon assessment (50% bargaining range, 67% escalation probability) sustaining crude premium; risk-off equity regime (F&G 38) weighing on broad SPY.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2026d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLE will close below $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days even as crude oil benchmarks (USO/Brent) remain elevated, reflecting refining margin compression relative to crude strength.

market28%MISS

XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) will close above $66.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market47%MISS

XLE will close above $64.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%HIT

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Energy sector ETF XLE will outperform SPY by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven oil premium diverges from broader wartime risk-off equity weakness.

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