MISSBrier 0.077

XLE reference at creation (2026-09-06) was $64.06. Within the evidence window (2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20), daily closes were: 9/8 64.77, 9/9 65.31, 9/10 64.93, 9/11 65.14, 9/14 64.53, 9/15 65.93, 9/16 64.03, 9/17 64.48, 9/18 64.31 (last trading day before deadline). Minimum close in window = 64.03 on 9/16. Required: close below $62.00 on at least one day. 64.03 > 62.00, so threshold NOT met. XLE did not close below $62 until 9/21 (62.46) and 9/26 (62.04), both outside the 9/6-9/20 window. Price was roughly flat to slightly up during the window rather than trending down.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongXLE

XLE will close below $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days even as crude oil benchmarks (USO/Brent) remain elevated, reflecting refining margin compression relative to crude strength.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 28% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.077.

Cross-asset relative-value angle distinct from prior XLE price-level predictions: sustained crude war-premium (Hormuz disruption, confirmed USO/Brent moves) can decouple upstream integrated energy equity performance from refiners within the XLE basket, producing a relative underperformance even amid high crude prices.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Energy sector ETF XLE will outperform SPY by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven oil premium diverges from broader wartime risk-off equity weakness.

market26%MISS

XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) will close above $66.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market47%MISS

XLE will close above $64.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%

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XLE will close below $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days even as crude oil benchmarks (USO/Brent) remain elevated, reflecting refining margin compression relative to crude strength.

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