MISSBrier 0.220

Data-resolved: XLE moved from 64.06 to 62.46 (-2.50%) during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-22. Target: above 66. Target not reached. High was 66.17.

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLE

XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) will close above $66.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 47% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.220.

Direct wartime impact: sustained Brent-above-$90 war premium (confirmed prior window) and 67% Hormuz escalation probability should flow through to energy-sector equities beyond upstream oil ETFs, lifting XLE from the current 64.06 base.

Probability: 47%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$66

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLE will close below $62.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days even as crude oil benchmarks (USO/Brent) remain elevated, reflecting refining margin compression relative to crude strength.

market28%MISS

Energy sector ETF XLE will outperform SPY by at least 4% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven oil premium diverges from broader wartime risk-off equity weakness.

market26%MISS

XLE will close above $64.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%

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XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) will close above $66.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days

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