Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.

Derived from: Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalation probability 67% and risk scenario 1 (Hormuz escalation materializes) explicit 35% probability estimate within the calendar window.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

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