A confirmed Israel-Hezbollah cross-border strike (rocket fire, drone attack, or airstrike) will occur within 14 days as the October 7 anniversary and Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan convergence window approaches.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.

Hezbollah actor intelligence confirms active military conflict across multiple domains with explicit refusal of ceasefire; the October 7 Anniversary signal (intensity 2/5) flags historical precedent for escalation around this calendar window.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US will announce new semiconductor export restrictions or entity-list additions targeting China within 30 days.

geopolitical57%

China will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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Donald Trump will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026, resolving Polymarket question 1105746 as YES.

geopolitical5%

A confirmed Israel-Hezbollah cross-border strike (rocket fire, drone attack, or airstrike) will occur within 14 days as the October 7 anniversary and Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan convergence window approaches.

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