Donald Trump will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026, resolving Polymarket question 1105746 as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Derived from: crowd market 1105746 (YES 0%) benchmarked against elevated US pressure posture signals and named alternative administrator figures (Grenell, Caine) circulating in intelligence context; probability kept low but non-zero given active escalation environment.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$2,026

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Pablo Marçal will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

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Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

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Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to pre-crisis normal levels by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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The US will officially announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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Donald Trump will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026, resolving Polymarket question 1105746 as YES.

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