Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-20 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

United Russia (ER) is priced at 81% YES on Polymarket for the same election with dominant incumbent structural advantage per Russia Kremlin actor intelligence; Yabloko has no realistic path to plurality, consistent with the crowd's near-zero pricing.

Probability

5%

Timeframe

10 days

Deadline

Sep 30in 1d

Made

Sep 20

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.