China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' as YES

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: dominant equilibrium is gray-zone escalation (100% probability), not invasion; bargaining range narrow (25%) but structurally supports continued gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic invasion. Crowd priced at 5%; slightly elevated given critical 30% coalition stability/fracture risk.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 18

Price Target$31

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

United Russia (ER) will be confirmed as gaining the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket market YES, with probability exceeding the current 76% crowd price given sustained Kremlin consolidation of political control.

geopolitical51%

Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

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China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' as YES

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