Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Crowd priced at 5% YES; longevity analysis flags Putin's advanced age (71-74) and wartime stress as marginal elevating factors, but Kremlin intelligence shows continued aggressive, stable governing posture with no succession signals, keeping probability only slightly above crowd consensus.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 93d
Made: Sep 18

Price Target$31

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' as YES

geopolitical5%

United Russia (ER) will be confirmed as gaining the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket market YES, with probability exceeding the current 76% crowd price given sustained Kremlin consolidation of political control.

geopolitical51%

Yabloko will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

geopolitical5%

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Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

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