Vladimir Putin will no longer serve as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.
Crowd priced at 5% YES; longevity analysis flags Putin's advanced age (71-74) and wartime stress as marginal elevating factors, but Kremlin intelligence shows continued aggressive, stable governing posture with no succession signals, keeping probability only slightly above crowd consensus.
- Probability
- 5%
- Timeframe
- 90 days
- Deadline
- Dec 31in 93d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.