United Russia (ER) will be confirmed as gaining the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket market YES, with probability exceeding the current 76% crowd price given sustained Kremlin consolidation of political control.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 51% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Russia Kremlin Intelligence Update: aggressive military posture with legislative backing for expanded operations and consolidated domestic control; historical dominance of United Russia in prior elections; crowd price 76% on Polymarket market 1130012

Probability

51%

Timeframe

11 days

Deadline

Sep 30in 1d

Made

Sep 19

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.