Pablo Marçal will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-04.

Crowd market prices Marçal at 0% YES with $1M+ 24h volume; no intelligence signal in the dataset contradicts this base rate. Stated as a low-probability positive event consistent with crowd pricing, benchmarked against Polymarket [601835].

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 12 days
Deadline: Oct 4in 5d
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$2,026

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to pre-crisis normal levels by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

geopolitical37%

The US will officially announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

geopolitical5%

The United States will conduct a full military invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

geopolitical11%

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Pablo Marçal will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, resolving the Polymarket question as YES.

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