The US will announce new semiconductor export restrictions or entity-list additions targeting China within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 57% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-21.

Bayesian US-China Trade War Escalation shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, bearish assessment, 60% confidence) despite Nash equilibrium suggesting negotiation; structural conditions favor renewed technology-sector friction rather than durable détente.

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 21in 22d
Made: Sep 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

A confirmed Israel-Hezbollah cross-border strike (rocket fire, drone attack, or airstrike) will occur within 14 days as the October 7 anniversary and Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan convergence window approaches.

geopolitical85%

China will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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The US will announce new semiconductor export restrictions or entity-list additions targeting China within 30 days.

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