Iran or a proxy actor will conduct a kinetic incident (vessel harassment, mine deployment, or seizure attempt) in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-18.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis analysis shows 67% escalation probability, the highest of all tracked scenarios, despite a nominally sufficient 50% bargaining range — Fearon notes commitment traps could still collapse it. Wartime regime designation elevates weight on kinetic outcomes over diplomatic ones.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 18in 19d
Made: Sep 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

WTI crude oil will trade at or below $65 per barrel at some point in September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?' as YES

geopolitical5%

China will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' as YES

geopolitical5%

Saudi Arabia will announce a unilateral crude production cut beyond its existing OPEC+ quota within 30 days

geopolitical28%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

A confirmed new cross-border military exchange (strikes, rocket fire, or incursion) between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon will occur within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran or a proxy actor will conduct a kinetic incident (vessel harassment, mine deployment, or seizure attempt) in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture