PARTIALBrier 0.405

USD/CHF data shows the pair was below 0.88 throughout the entire prediction window (March 23-April 22). March 23 close: 0.7878, lowest point April 13: 0.7789, final close April 22: 0.7798. Condition met on ALL trading days (30+ days), far exceeding the 2-day requirement. However, threshold_met=false because the reference value 0.88 appears to be incorrect - the pair never traded near 0.88 during this period. Actual: All days below 0.88, Required: At least 2 days, condition exceeded but suspect data error.

Resolved Apr 22, 2026

Market

SHORT correctUSD/CHF

Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) will strengthen below 0.88 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime drives safe-haven flows to traditional neutral currency amid Hormuz closure risks

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 64% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-22. Brier score 0.405.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis game theory shows 67% escalation probability with Iran pursuing diplomatic brinkmanship. Wartime regime classification indicates supply disruption scenarios favor safe-haven currencies. 30-day timeframe shows best Brier score (0.212) in calibration data.

Probability: 64%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 22160d ago
Made: Mar 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

USD/CHF will trade above 0.815 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%HIT

USD/CHF will trade below 0.81 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market70%

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Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) will strengthen below 0.88 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime drives safe-haven flows to traditional neutral currency amid Hormuz closure risks

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