HITBrier 0.313

Early-confirmed: USD/CHF hit target above 0.815 on 2026-09-10, 2026-09-11. Current price: 0.82 (started at 0.81).

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSD/CHF

USD/CHF will trade above 0.815 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 44% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-12. Brier score 0.313.

Opposite catalyst from the prior confirmed CHF-strengthening move: a hawkish Fed hold (Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot, bearish for risk, supportive of USD via UUP) should partially reverse the safe-haven franc bid seen in the wartime drawdown.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$0.815

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/CHF will trade below 0.81 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market70%

Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) will strengthen below 0.88 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime drives safe-haven flows to traditional neutral currency amid Hormuz closure risks

market64%PARTIAL

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USD/CHF will trade above 0.815 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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